10 May 2005Guardian
President George Bush will publicly congratulate the people of Georgia on their peaceful "rose revolution" in November 2003 when he addresses a crowd of up to 100,000 in Freedom Square, Tbilisi, today.But his private message to President Mikhail Saakashvili is likely to be more nuanced. He will remind the Georgian leader that democracy means more than elections, and further reforms are essential if the former Soviet republic is to fulfil its EU and Nato membership ambitions.
Stephen Hadley, the US national security adviser, highlighted Washington's concerns about simmering disputes in the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia prior to Mr Bush's arrival. Georgia's attitude to its Russophile, Azeri and Armenian minorities and the rule of law were also seen as key tests of future progress, he suggested.
The US is anxious that an argument with Russia over the timetable for closing two Soviet-era military bases in Georgia should not rekindle broader tensions with the Kremlin. Despite ongoing talks, Mr Saakashvili cited the problem as his reason for boycotting yesterday's VE Day celebrations in Moscow.
Mr Bush has been quick to respond to a recent statement by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, that the collapse of the Soviet Union was "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century".
He said at the weekend that post-1945 Soviet domination in eastern Europe and central Asia was "one of the greatest wrongs of history". He warned Mr Putin to eschew further interference in neighbouring countries while reserving that right for the US. His next target is Belarus.
But the US needs Mr Putin's cooperation on issues ranging from Iran to oil. It shares Moscow's concern about the use of Georgian territory by Islamist extremists attempting to destabilise Chechnya and the northern Caucasus. The US recently instituted a $50m (£27m) military training programme in Georgia but has renounced any intention of replacing the Russian bases with Nato installations.
In other words, Washington will support Mr Saakashvili with words, advice and financial assistance - as long as he does not upset more important apple carts.
"There is still some optimism about the rose revolution but it is tempered by greater realism," said Professor Charles King, an expert on US-Georgia relations at Georgetown University in Washington. "Democratic assistance is all very well - but you have to have a functioning country first."
Continually blaming "the nefarious designs of the Russian Federation" for Georgia's ills was counterproductive, Prof King said. "In time even Georgia's friends may come to wonder whether a country with fictitious borders and no plan for making them real is a country worth helping." This increased sense of caution, teetering on disillusionment, is reflected in opinion polls indicating a 25% fall in Mr Saakashvili's approval ratings.
Street protests over electricity and water shortages, controversial anti-corruption measures, and mutterings about Mr Saakashvili's "arrogance" have prompted speculation that Georgia's rose is beginning to wilt.
"This is the very same wave of social discontent that propelled the rose revolution and brought down [former president] Eduard Shevardnadze," said Jaba Devdariani, writing in Transitions On Line. "The government should worry lest the unrest turn into an explosion." This was unlikely at present, Mr Devdariani admitted. Georgia's leader retained 38% support in the face of a fragmented political opposition.
Prof King said Mr Saakashvili had made progress in some areas, notably in Adjaria and in improved tax collection.
But if Mr Saakashvili did not put his weight fully behind systemic reforms, popular counter-revolution was not entirely out of the question, Prof King said. "Saakashvili needs to listen to what is called 'the shout from the streets' or he could go the way of Shevardnadze. After all, he created the template."
