27 January 2006ic WalesMolly Watson
Massive ice sheets will develop on high land across Wales, according to a scientist who predicts our climate will get colder, not warmer.
Despite predictions global warming will lead to a more Mediterranean-style climate, the Welsh glaciologist said environmental changes could see Wales plunged into freezing temperatures.
Previously, scientists have said climate change would lead to higher average temperatures in high latitude areas such as Britain, with rises of up to 8C. Glaciologist Dr Bryn Hubbard believes past experience proves this will not happen.
Instead of getting warmer, temperatures will actually fall as Wales' main source of warm air, the Gulf stream, is cut off.
Dr Hubbard, a senior lecturer at the centre for glaciology at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth, said the cooling will be caused by the melting of the Greenland ice cap which will flood the Atlantic with cold water, and cut off the Gulf stream.
The result for Britain and other northern latitude countries will be a dramatic cool down, ultimately leading to the possibility of glaciers forming in the Brecon Beacons and Snowdonia and even on comparatively low mountains.
Dr Hubbard said, "There was an event at the end of the last ice age when things got warmer and warmer which resulted in a lot of ice melting in North America. This ice melt was then discharged into the North Atlantic ocean which caused the Gulf stream to be cut off and prevented warm air from reaching the coast of Britain.
"We are very warm in Wales, considering our latitude, but it's down to the Gulf stream.
"There have been a lot of papers in the last couple of years detailing dramatic melting at the southern point of the Greenland ice sheet. That melt is discharging large volumes of water into the Atlantic so it's likely that, as before, this will result in fairly major cooling.
"It's difficult to pinpoint when this will happen but it could be within years or decades."
Assembly campaigner for Friends of the Earth Cymru Gordon James said he agreed with Dr Hubbard's predictions. He claims the main cause of climate change is burning fossil fuels
He said, "There is a real possibility this could happen. The evidence we now have shows the impact of climate change is happening quicker than we realised. It's extremely worrying.
"The message should be taken on by politicians; they need to make urgent decisions to review the situation. We need to use energy more efficiently and switch from burning fossil fuels to cleaner energy."
Dr Hubbard said the process could be reversed by monitoring carbon emissions.
He said, "It's never too late to change, and you can't be drawn into a state of apathy. The answer probably lies in money, in a global system of carbon trading in conjunction with a direct tax on carbon dioxide emissions.
"There may need to be consumer-led embargoes on goods from countries which are the worst polluters, and there should be curbs on air travel, which makes such a huge contribution to total emissions of CO . Aircraft should not be flown with empty seats and there must be cleaner aircraft engines. Sports cars should be heavily taxed and consumers should rebel against things like excess packaging on goods."
