Wettest summer in almost 50 years may be followed by warm, dry spell

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Patrick Barkham30 August 2004

It seems as if we have spent the summer huddled under umbrellas whingeing about the weather while meteorologists chide us that it is really not so bad. But moan at will because it is now official: we have been enduring the wettest summer for nearly half a century.

More than double the normal amount of rain fell in England and Wales during June, July and August, according to the Met Office. The last time it was wetter was in the summer of 1956.

In the last three months there has been an average of 274mm (10.8in) of rain in England and Wales, comfortably beating other notoriously damp summers, including 1999, 1980 and 1961.

Although drier than the summer of 1912, when England and Wales were deluged with an average of 410mm of rain, 2004 will go down in meteorological history as the joint 12th wettest summer since records began in 1766.

The rain has disrupted many sporting and cultural fixtures, causing the cancellation of days of play at Wimbledon and adding lashings of mud to the Glastonbury festival.

For arable farmers, it has been particularly disastrous. With thousands of hectares of crops ruined, farmers were again battling against unpredictable showers to harvest what is left of their wheat over the weekend.

As farmers faced the prospect of a ruinous £50 per acre loss on cereal crops, Lord Haskins, the government's rural adviser, claimed that the summer rain could do more financial damage than the foot and mouth crisis.

Ten days of dry and windy weather could still save the harvest by drying out many crops, according to the National Farmers' Union.

And there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Just when the holidays end and the schools reopen, the south, at least, could enjoy an Indian summer.

"People tend to hope for an Indian summer if the summer has been unsettled," said Clive Burlton of the Met Office. "The long-term forecast for September is quite promising, particularly in the south. It looks as if it will be warm and settled and dry for the south- east a lot of the time."

While the north of Scotland and the east of England will be buffeted by cool breezes and showers today and tomorrow, increasingly fine and dry weather will take hold across much of the country by next weekend.

The Notting Hill carnival may not escape the odd shower in the middle of the day today, but forecasters said bank holiday temperatures would climb to a respectable 20C (68F) in London and parts of the south-east. The north of Scotland will be hit by the gloomiest weather.

Much of the UK will continue to be plagued by unsettled conditions this week, with cool winds and sudden showers, particularly down the east coast.

But summer will finally arrive next weekend - in the south at least - with balmy temperatures and clear skies. Similar conditions may take longer to appear in the north, with the chance of more rain next weekend.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,5004309-103636,00.html