14 December 2006Stephen Kinzer
The decision to invade Iraq may go down in history as the most self-defeating ever made by an American president. Yet the United States is not alone in making choices that are devastating to its own interests. The European Union is about to prove that it can be equally blind.
At a summit that opens today in Brussels, the EU will in all probability make explicit what has become clear in recent months: it does not want Turkey as a member. Officially it is likely to "suspend" negotiations with Turkey in several key areas, and offer it a "privileged partnership" or some other form of second-class status.
This would be almost as great a gift to Muslim radicals and enemies of democracy as the US invasion of Iraq. By slamming the door in Turkey's face, the EU will proclaim that there is a fundamental chasm separating East and West, and that true cooperation between Europe and the Islamic world is, at least for now, impossible.
For the last few years, Turkey has been engaged in a process of near-revolutionary change. It is today a far more open and democratic country than it has ever been. The main reason Turkey has moved in this direction is the prospect of EU membership. If that prospect disappears, the reform process may slow down or stop.
Some senior commanders in the Turkish Army, which would lose most of its political power if Turkey joined the EU, will cheer this breakup. So will religious fundamentalists, who have always rejected the view that Turkey is essentially European.
These two groups have worked uneasily together under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan , who comes from a religious background and symbolizes Turkey's effort to blend Islam with modernity. Now they will return to their traditional hostility, perhaps in ways that could threaten the country's hard-won political stability.
The EU's rejection of Turkey will lead many Muslims to conclude that if Europe has no place for the world's most democratic and secular Muslim country, it cannot be serious about bridging the gap between Islam and Christianity. That will strengthen the hand of those who preach "identity politics," which holds that religious and cultural differences among groups of nations are immutable.
This decision also bodes ill for Europe itself. A decade from now, Turkey will have a young, vibrant, and well-educated population, open to innovation and eager to work for moderate wages. Europe, by contrast, will be old and encrusted, with no one to pay the pensions of its graying population.
Implications for world politics are even more profound. With Turkey as a member, the EU could truly claim to be a global power. It would have the raw material to build a security force that could project the power of democratic ideals to trouble spots from Iraq to Darfur. Instead it is retreating into its shell, leaving world leadership to the overwhelmed United States, China, and emerging blocs of radicals who will cackle with glee over this breakup.
The EU's official explanation for this "train wreck" is that it is Turkey's fault, because Turkey has refused to open its ports to ships from Greek Cyprus. The Cyprus issue is, however, a smokescreen to hide what every sensate European knows. Important political leaders, notably President Jacques Chirac of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, have concluded that Turkey is too big, too poor, and above all too Islamic to join their club. By blocking Turkey's application, they are signaling to voters that they are reliably anti-Turkish, anti-immigrant, and anti-Muslim. Their positions stoke the fires of insular nationalism that are burning in many parts of Europe.
To be sure, Turkey is less than an ideal candidate for EU membership. It limits free speech, denies aspects of its history, allows generals to intimidate politicians, and restricts the freedom of Kurds, Christians, Alawite Muslims, and other groups. It has been steadily pulling away from these bad habits, but after being rejected by the EU, it may see no incentive to continue doing so.
For the last half-century, the EU has been arguably the greatest stabilizing force in the world. It has calmed age-old enmities and set many countries on the road to freedom and prosperity. Now, for the first time, it is becoming a destabilizing force. By rejecting Turkey, it will pour more fuel onto the fires of anger that are burning in Iraq and throughout the Islamic world. That will be as dangerous for Europeans as it is for secularists and lovers of freedom everywhere.
Stephen Kinzer is a former chief of the New York Times bureau in Istanbul and author of "Crescent and Star: Turkey Between Two Worlds."
