It was a searingly hot summer day in the Pakistani city of Lahore. At the airport, the usual chaos of relatives, taxi drivers and hotel touts stood and sweated outside the concrete concourse. Broken baggage trolleys lay skewed to one side. Bored traffic policemen wearily searched vehicles.
In the throng, no one noticed the clean-cut, slightly chubby young man on his way to the airfreight offices to pick up a package. Nobody, that is, except the men who had been watching Muhammad Khan, a key al-Qaeda target, for six weeks.
They had begun surveillance following the arrest a month earlier of a man identified as Musaad Aruchi. Aruchi was picked up by Pakistani paramilitary forces, with CIA help, in Karachi. He had been in touch with Khan regularly. Street maps of New York were found in his apartment, as were some computer disks containing information on other American buildings.
It was CIA telephone and internet intercepts that led to Aruchi's arrest. He was held by Pakistani intelligence for three days, before being flown out of the country in an unmarked CIA plane.
Then the agents pounced on their next target. Khan was surrounded and swept off the pavement into a waiting vehicle to a high-security prison. The Pakistani security forces, which had resisted American pressure to allow the CIA to run the operation, had reason to be pleased with themselves. The 13 July arrest did far more than take down a one-man communications hub for al-Qaeda.
When American intelligence experts arrived in Pakistan and started trawling through the 25-year-old's computers and documents, they were astonished. Khan had been in touch with dozens of other activists all over the world, passing on messages given to him by more senior al-Qaeda figures.
It was a massive breakthrough. Laid out in front of them was information that could, if played right, lead them to the heart of al-Qaeda's current operations. Plans were hastily laid. Anti-terror specialists were mobilised. Some of Khan's associates were rapidly traced out. One was Khalfan Gailani, a Tanzanian wanted since 1998 for his part in the bombing of the US embassy in his homeland and one of the FBI's 22 most wanted criminals. Gailani was apprehended two weeks ago in Pakistan, after a 12-hour firefight.
As American intelligence officers continued to sift through Khan's records, they realised there was a treasure trove of information. 'It is obviously a very serious victory. It is obvious that there is a real find here,' said Gideon Rose, a former member of the National Security Council during the Clinton administration.
Khan, it transpired, had attended an al-Qaeda training camp in Afghanistan in the late 1990s and is thought to have associated with Khaled Sheikh Mohammed, the architect of the September 11, 2001 attacks and a militant with extensive experience of aviation. A series of planning documents was stored on disks and a laptop's hard-drive found at Khan's home in a wealthy Lahore suburb. They were surveillance reports, meticulously compiled in a style taught in al-Qaeda training camps, as laid out in the 11-volume 'manual of jihad' compiled by militants in Pakistan.
But the most concrete information found on Khan's computer and disks was the existence of five compact files, each one devoted to a separate building in the US. They were the Stock Exchange and Citigroup HQ in New York, insurance giant Prudential Financial in Newark and the IMF and World Bank buildings in Washington.
Each document was about 20 printed pages long and mapped out in exact detail a lengthy and comprehensive 'casing' operation that evaluated each building as a target. The files included meticulous logging of pedestrian traffic, the routines of security personnel at the buildings and discussion of which sort of explosives would be best used at each site. The files were written in perfect English.
Although it seemed that the research had all been done in 2000 or 2001, at least one of the files on the computer had been opened in January. Nor were documents found on the computer limited to the five buildings. Buildings in other cities, including San Francisco, were mentioned. At least 10 sites in New York alone were found on the computer. In all, there were 500 photographs, drawings and diagrams. Some of them showed underground garages.
According to Pakistani officials, there was also evidence of preparations for an attack on Heathrow by British-based activists. There were photographs of terminal buildings and the refuelling centre, as well as of tunnels used by passengers and freight companies. Precise measurements of roads, buildings and underpasses had been recorded. Intelligence sources elsewhere in the region told The Observer last week that the reports had included surveys of underground parking lots so detailed that the gradient of the ramps had been noted.
The same sources said the planning also recorded traffic flows on roads around the airport, as well as details of the sequences of traffic lights around the perimeter.
Pakistani officials told their American counterparts, and have told The Observer, that the threat was 'present'. They said that Khan had been in touch with six 'jihadi associates' in America. Washington's biggest alarm bells rang.
Khan was believed to be a courier of messages between al-Qaeda groups or terrorists. He would receive messages on computer disks and then post them briefly on the internet, using websites hosted in places like Pakistan, Turkey and Nigeria. Though most of the information was old, anti-terrorism experts pointed out that major al-Qaeda attacks were almost always years in the planning. The 11 September attacks were planned for six years and the 1998 attacks on US embassies in east Africa were planned for five years.
'I am not alarmed by the age of the intelligence found. I think that just reflects the world view of al-Qaeda operations. They can take years,' said Larry Johnson, a former deputy director of counter-terrorism at the US state department.
But, though the material was useful, it was deeply troubling, too. Despite the fact that many of the reports were compiled about 2001, officers around the world knew that a race was on - to find the authors before they could strike.
A classic sting was set up. Pakistani intelligence officers prevailed on Khan to work for them. It is not known how he was persuaded to co-operate. The 'deal' was thrashed out at a prison where abuse is commonplace. Last weekend, the young militant finally sent emails to scores of activists in America, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. He requested that they get in touch urgently. As the emails came back, intelligence officers all over the world went into action.
President George W. Bush was on board Air Force One when he was told about the news. It was Friday, 30 July, and the Boeing 747 was flying on the campaign trail through the blue skies of Missouri for another stop on his bid for re-election to the White House.
The night before, at Langley, Virginia, top CIA officials had been briefed for the first time on the intelligence on Khan's laptops and disks. After 72 straight hours of work by agents and analysts, translating and compiling the information flowing from Pakistan, officials had decided the information was extremely serious. It was put into a morning briefing paper for the president.
Bush told national security adviser Condoleezza Rice they had to counter the threat. The operation was already in the works. Frances Fragos Townsend, Bush's domestic security adviser, had acted immediately on Friday when she saw the reports on her desk. It was not just the CIA report from Pakistan that was worrying her: another stream of intelligence, possibly gleaned from interrogations of recent detainees, was also hinting strongly that an attack in New York was in the works.
By the end of Sunday morning, the homeland security secretary Tom Ridge had briefed the Democratic challenger John Kerry by phone on the threat. He then called senior news executives on various television channels and newspapers in a conference call. Ridge described a 'most unusual set of circumstances where, from a variety of different sources that we continue to exploit, there's a convergence of information that compels us to talk publicly about specific potential targets'.
A few minutes later Ridge appeared live on American television to tell the world that New York, Newark and Washington were under threat.
British authorities had also been alerted, and moved quickly. It was clear from the start that Khan was likely to have connections to the UK. It is thought that Khan - a fluent English-speaker - had visited the UK a number of times, possibly as recently as November 2002. Khan's father worked for Pakistan's state-run airline, PIA, and had obtained five tickets in his son's name for travel between Pakistan and London over the past four to five years. Khan also had relatives in England, at least some of whom shared his political beliefs.
Last Tuesday, British police and security services moved in, arresting 13 (and then releasing one immediately) in north London, Watford, Luton and Blackburn under suspicion of terrorism-related offences. All were men, aged between 19 and 32. No names were released by UK authorities, but American officials revealed that one of those arrested was Eisam al-Hindi, whom they alleged was 'chief of al-Qaeda in Britain'. Details about al-Hindi have been thin. One man arrested last week in a separate raid was Babar Ahmad. American officials want to extradite him for terrorist offences relating to Afghanistan and Chechnya. Ahmad is currently in detention.
Direct links to senior al-Qaeda figures among British Muslim activists are rare. However, many have had links to other militants in Pakistan who themselves may have connections to al-Qaeda figures. 'That's the nature of modern Islamic militancy,' he said. 'It's all about who you know. It's about personal connections and being able to source the right materials at the right time to carry out your own schemes.'
The vast bulk of these men are British citizens of Pakistani descent, although some are from the Middle East who have been naturalised after emigrating to the UK. Many were active in Kashmir during the 1990s, travelling from the UK to Pakistan to join militant outfits launching guerrilla attacks on Indian forces in the parts of Kashmir that are under New Delhi's rule. Such activities were not illegal at the time - though they now are.
Many of Britain's Pakistani community are from the Mirpur region, close to Kashmir, and sympathise with the cause, if not the means, of the militants. Hundreds of young Pakistani-descended British citizens have spent a few weeks or months with 'mujahideen' groups, many sponsored by the Pakistani government, in Kashmir or training in Afghanistan or Pakistan in the past decade.
'A lot just did a few weeks one summer and then came home, got married and settled down. They are devout Muslims whose faith is an important part of their identity, but not active any more in any kind of radicalism,' said one Islamic activist.
However, there are concerns that more recent recruits to militancy may be missed. Sources within the Islamic activist community speak of 'several dozen' young men from Britain who have made their way to Afghanistan since 2001 to fight the Americans. Such men are far more likely to have contact with al-Qaeda and, terrorism experts say, pose a far more imminent threat than 'old warriors'.
Police are also concerned that low-level training of militants may be continuing. There are reports of radical Muslim groups organising 'martial training' in east London. 'There's nothing wrong with people practising karate, but we don't know exactly what they are doing. The idea of small groups of young radicalised Muslims getting together after prayers in a mosque to plan any kind of activity that is based in ideas of any kind of violence is concerning,' one security specialist said. 'No one has the resources to monitor these things and it may well be wrong to do so. It could be totally innocent ... but it is also well-known that these kinds of small group activities are a classic conduit to terrorist recruitment.'
Despite the arrests, Pakistan is continuing to provide a 'production line' of new terrorists. Along the Afghan-Pakistani frontier, with their high mountains, rugged valleys and fiercely independent, devoutly Muslim and heavily armed inhabitants provide perfect cover for fugitives. Among these dusty, dry hills, a senior Pakistani military officer told The Observer recently, that up to 600 'foreign' militants are hiding. They included Khan and Ghailani and, almost certainly, Osama bin Laden and his closest aides.
Most analysts last week agreed that bin Laden was still alive - and probably in relatively good health, despite being on the run for nearly three years. Although al-Qaeda's leader has issued frequent statements on cassettes, he has not appeared in any new video images for some time.
The reason, experts say, is that the Saudi master of propaganda is waiting for the right moment, such as after a strike on the scale of 11 September, to appear on the worlds' television screens. Such a return would have a devastating impact on the morale of his pursuers and lift the spirits of his followers immeasurably.
The Americans, the Pakistanis and their allies want to stop that happening. But a major push in March, involving regular US troops, the Pakistani army and Afghan militia forces - as well as specialist American units transferred from Iraq - failed to turn up any substantive leads.
To launch an attack 'real-time' data is needed, telling the planners where bin Laden is, not where he was. And even should this be obtained, Bush will have to decide whether to use a cruise missile to obliterate the terrorist leader - and risk destroying evidence of his death - or try an immensely risky operation to kill or even capture him. Recent efforts by the Pakistani army to push into the tribal areas - acting as beaters for the American guns - have failed in the face of concerted local resistance.
The Pashtun tribes were particularly angered by the assassination of a popular resistance leader, Nek Mohammed, by an American missile that struck while the tribal chief was using a satellite phone to talk to the BBC.
'There are grave obstacles, of course in operating in these areas,' a senior Pakistani general said recently. 'But the real problems are caused by the global situation. We are not fighting a campaign in a vacuum.'
Analysts no longer talk about al-Qaeda as an organisation. 'It's as much an ideology as a definable group," said one security expert. 'It's impossible to estimate how many people are involved. You are a member of al-Qaeda if you say you are and that makes it very hard to tracking individuals and interdict plots,' said one former CIA counter-terrorism agent. 'There are a lot of very angry people out there.'
Another trend picked out by analysts is the increasing co-operation between differ ent militant groups. Until recently, Pakistani militants fighting in Kashmir rarely co-operated with Arab militants dedicated to a 'global jihad'. Increasingly, the groups have become indistinguishable. The same phenomenon has been noticed elsewhere. 'It's all fusing into one worldwide "Jihadi international",' the former agent said. 'It's moved well beyond bin Laden or a few guys in a cave somewhere. It's now far more fragmented and diverse.'
A British intelligence expert who has advised the government said that there were no 'metrics' for judging progress in the war on terror.
'Police and intelligence services worldwide are doing their job - taking down cells, locating operatives, breaking up plots - well, and that is having a significant short term impact,' he said.
'But long-term success in defeating terorrism doesn't necessarily follow. Four thousand people have been killed or imprisoned since 2001 and, although the loss of experienced, skilled men has an impact, the vacancies are being filled.
'In Saudi Arabia they keep arresting "leaders" and new one's come forward. There's no shortage of recruits anywhere and that means there will be no shortage of threats in the coming years.'
Perhaps the web of contacts uncovered by arresting Khan will reveal further links to al-Qaeda sleepers in America and Britain. But it also might not. 'This is not the key that will unlock all of al-Qaeda,' Rose added.
On Thursday, police in Albany, in upstate New York, arrested two local Islamic clerics. They had been caught after a year-long sting operation in which the pair had believed they were laundering money in connection with the purchase of shoulder-fired missiles. The swoop had nothing to do with Khan's network, but showed conclusively that other terrorist dangers still exist.
They may have started rounding up Khan's alleged contacts, but the war goes on. The intelligence agencies continue to probe for leads; the enemy continues to regroup and plan for a new 'spectacular'. And the police hunt them. And so it goes on.
Combating the international jihad
Vigilance is the watchword
Since September 11 2001 there have been 622 people arrested under the powers in the terrorism 2000 act. So far 97 of them have been charged with terrorism-related offences and only 15 have actually been convicted. Of the total 152 were charged under other legislation (commonly relating to identify fraud of credit card offences) or released into the custody of the immigration service. 284 have been released without charge.
Spending on protecting the UK from terrorism is expected to reach £2.1 billion by 2007-8, more than double the amount before the September 11 attacks. MI5, MI6 and GCHQ are to receive funding for 1,000 extra intelligence staff and local authorities will have additional resources for civil defence preparations. Worldwide, 625 people were killed in terrorist attacks during 2003. The number of individual attacks rose from 205 to 208. The number of deaths was down from 2002 when 725 were killed but the numbers wounded rose significantly from 2,013 in 2002 to 3,646 in 2003. The increase has been attributed to an increase in the number of attacks on 'soft targets' including places of worship, hotels and commercial districts which are intended to produce large numbers of casualties.
Despite the threat of a possible terrorist attack on London, tourists are visiting the capital in record numbers. The latest statistics reveal that 6.5 million visitors came to the UK between March and May, a rise of 21 per cent and the highest number ever recorded during this period. Around half stayed in the capital. Passenger numbers arriving at British airports increased by 7 per cent in June alone. There has also been a 17 per cent rise in the number of Americans visiting the UK, something credited to the huge popularity of Tony Blair across America. Last month twenty five million copies of a government booklet, 'Preparing for Emergencies', which gives advice on what to do in the event of a major terrorist attack and other emergencies, were sent out to households across the country. The Government has denied the publication of the booklet is any indication of an imminent attack.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,4988431-102274,00.html
