11 August 2008
No one is blameless in the dangerous game that has erupted into deadly war in the Caucasus.
Georgia's president, Mikheil Saakashvili, foolishly and tragically baited the Russians — or even more foolishly fell into Moscow's trap — when he sent his army into the separatist enclave of South Ossetia last week. The Bush administration has alternately egged on Mr. Saakashvili (although apparently not this time) and looked the other way as the Kremlin has bullied and blackmailed its neighbors and its own people.
There is no imaginable excuse for Russia's invasion of Georgia. After pounding both civilian and military targets with strategic bombers and missiles, Russian armored vehicles rolled into Georgia on Monday, raising fears of an all-out assault on the capital and Mr. Saakashvili's democratically elected government.
Moscow claims it is merely defending the rights of ethnic minorities in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which have been trying to break from Georgia since the early 1990s. But its ambitions go far beyond that.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (who has shouldered aside Russia's new president, Dmitri Medvedev, to run the war) appears determined to reimpose by force and intimidation as much of the old Soviet sphere of influence as he can get away with.
Mr. Saakashvili — with his pro-Western ambitions and desire to join NATO — has particularly drawn Mr. Putin's ire. But the assault on Georgia is also clearly intended to bully Ukraine into dropping its NATO bid and frighten any other neighbor or former satellite that might balk at following Moscow's line.
The United States and its European allies must tell Mr. Putin in the clearest possible terms that such aggression will not be tolerated. And that there will be no redivision of Europe.
Given Russia's oil wealth and nuclear arsenal, the West's leverage is limited, but not inconsequential. Russia still wants respect, economic deals and a seat at the table, including membership in the World Trade Organization and a new political and economic cooperation deal with the European Union. Moscow is also eager to complete a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with the United States that could be worth billions.
There can be no business as usual until Russian troops are out of Georgia, fighting has ended and all sides have agreed on a plan for calming the tensions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. At a minimum, that means international mediation, more autonomy for both regions and the stationing of truly neutral international peacekeepers — not Russian troops.
Mr. Saakashvili will have to abandon his ambitions to reassert control over the two regions. Because of his miscalculation, his army has been routed and his country badly damaged.
The United States and Europe also need to take a hard look at their relationship with Russia going forward. Neither has protested loudly or persuasively enough as Mr. Putin has used Russia's oil and gas wealth to blackmail its neighbors, throttled Russia's free press and harassed and imprisoned opponents.
The Bush administration has made Mr. Putin's job even easier, feeding nationalist resentments with its relentless drive for missile defense. The Europeans, who are far too dependent on Russian gas supplies, have deluded themselves into believing that they alone will be safe from Moscow's bullying.
The West wants and needs Russia as a full responsible partner. For that, Russia needs to behave responsibly. And the United States and Europe must make clear that anything less is unacceptable.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/12/opinion/12tue1.html?_r=2&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
