| 18 April 2007 |
| Ashok B Sharma |
The rainfall pattern in the ensuing south-west monsoon season is likely to mark a shift, with concentration on the western coast.
The south-west monsoon season usually begins from June and forecasts by global agencies show that in the first half of the season heavy rains would occur on the west coast, parts of south India, western Uttar Pradesh and northeastern Madhya Pradesh.
In the last two months the southern peninsula, western and central India would receive heavy rains.
The US-based International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) while making the forecast, however, did not specifically identify the regions of drought or deficient rainfall in India.
The spoilsport El Nino has subsided and would remain “neutral”. El Nino is the warming of Pacific waters above the normal range and causes drought in various parts of the globe. The opposite phenomena, La Nina (cooling of Pacific waters above the normal range) causes heavy rainfall at places.
Global forecasts suggest while El Nino would remain subdued in all the four regions of the Pacific (Nino 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4), there may be a possible emergence of a weak La Nina. The forecasts, however, are not sure when La Nina phenomena would emerge and to what extent it can impact.
Temperatures would remain high in several parts of the country. The shift in the rainfall pattern is a matter of concern. Since the last two years, there has been heavy rainfall in drought-prone areas, while the flood-prone areas were left dry. Meteorologists are studying this unique shift in rainfall pattern and are trying to correlate with the on-going global climate change.
Temperature in the tropical Atlantic would also weaken mildly.
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