9 August 2005Emma Ross-Thomas and David Evans Planetark.com
Maize crops in Spain and southwest France will fall well short of last year's without relief in the next few weeks from severe drought, farmers' groups said on Monday.
Spain's worst drought on record has already wrecked wheat and barley harvests. Its maize crop is also expected to be far lighter than last year's, although quality will be good.
Spain's Farm Ministry published new data on Monday putting the crop at 3.8 million tonnes against 4.8 million last year.
But the producers' association told Reuters maize output would be closer to 3.0 million tonnes.
"Around three million tonnes will be produced, 3.1 or 3.2 if you count what will not make it onto the market," Agustin Marine, president of the group, said.
In France, where traders have put the domestic crop at 14-14.5 million tonnes against 16.5 million last year, the outlook was "increasingly worrying," maize growers' group AGPM said.
"The level of rainfall in France at the end of July killed off hopes of seeing a normal harvest this autumn," it said.
French maize prices have been on a rollercoaster ride since June as the weather outlook battered the market.
Paris-traded November futures were at 120 euros a tonne at the beginning of June. They rose to a peak of 134 euros in late June as the drought intensified in the southwest.
However, by the first week of July the contract had slipped back down to 121 euros as concern over the crop ebbed, only to rise again to 132 euros by the middle of the month.
Since then, they have dipped again, and for the last two weeks have held steady around 126 euros.
WATER RATIONING
Maize is mainly grown on irrigated land and farmers in Spain planted less than last year as they expected water restrictions.
The Spanish Agriculture Ministry estimates nine percent less was planted, but the country's Maize Producers' Association says they sowed 20 percent less. The drought also meant farmers planted later than usual as they waited to see how much water would be available. Southern farmers plan to start bringing in the crop next week, but in the north it could be delayed because of later planting.
Marine said the maize plants were smaller than usual because of a heatwave at the end of May and the start of June, but he did not expect quality to be affected.
Independent crop consultant Jesus Uruel agreed.
"In terms of quality, I don't think there are any problems."
The harvest should start in the southern region of Andalusia from August 16, Ramon Garcia of farmers' union COAG said.
The French harvest will not start until September, leaving a few more weeks for rain. But the government has imposed water rationing on more than half the country, hitting maize farmers badly as the crop needs plenty of irrigation.
"Irrigation, where it has been possible up until now, has ensured good plant growth. But the restrictions are going to get worse and if it doesn't rain enough in the first two weeks of August, irrigated maize will not reach its full potential."
"For non-irrigated maize, in regions where rainfall has been seriously deficient -- south Aquitaine and Poitou-Charentes (in the southwest) -- the crops are all but lost," the AGPM said.
