17 November 2005Toronto Star
Later this month Canada will play host to the world's largest international policy conference on climate change, the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Climate Change Convention. For 12 days in Montreal, Canada will have the opportunity to shape international action to respond to the most pressing environmental issue of the 21st century. And we are about to fumble the ball.
Canadian climate policy reflects a disinterested view of climate change. Most Canadians, scientists included, tend to focus on global warming, just one aspect of climate change. With winter about to set in, few Canadians are likely to panic over a small increase in average temperatures. Most would welcome it.
There is a simple reason why Canadians should take greater interest in international climate policy: Our economic prosperity and future well-being require it.
The Kyoto Protocol — that vilified commitment Canadians made to decreasing greenhouse gas emissions but on which we seem likely to renege — was but a starting point for mitigating the human driver of climate change. Even if fully implemented by all signatories, Kyoto simply reduces the rate of increase of global emissions; it would not stabilize or reduce them.
Canadian policy going into the Montreal conference has focused on mitigation measures that might help us and other foot-dragging nations meet Kyoto targets. This is certainly needed. Persuading other countries, most notably the United States, but also China and India, to be part of a post-Kyoto mitigation plan has been discussed, and hopefully something is in the works. What is still missing, however, is a plan of action for adapting to the impacts of climate change. This would address the reality that greenhouse gas emissions are not going to be stabilized and that we are committed to a climate change future, whether we like it or not.
What will this future look like? In Canada's north, communities that rely economically and culturally on hunting and fishing have indicated they are already at risk from climate change. Residents have complained that changing sea ice patterns, shifts in seasonal temperatures, and even changes in the prevailing wind direction, have interfered with traditional hunting activities.
A recent international scientific assessment predicts Arctic temperatures to climb, ice cover and thickness to decrease, and extreme weather events and storms to happen more often. Communities are already vulnerable, and future climate change will make hunting more dangerous, limit access to hunting areas and cause damage to community infrastructure.
Climate change also presents an obstacle to future resource development in the north, since access to diamond mines and oil exploration sites is only cost-effective when lakes, rivers and tundra are frozen. When thawed, this terrain is virtually impassable.
It is not merely northern residents who need worry. Southern Ontario has its own vulnerabilities. The miserably hot and muggy days, lack of rain, and severe storms this past summer put considerable stress on Ontario's energy supply, infrastructure, emergency services, health-care systems and water resources. Consider it a dry run for what lies ahead under climate change.
Ontario air quality has deteriorated to the point where it is a more pressing public health concern, and causes more annual doctor and hospital visits, than SARS ever did. It will only worsen as Ontario summers become hotter and smoggier. Is our health-care system ready?
Extreme weather events — ice storms, thunderstorms, tornadoes and so on — will occur with greater frequency. Can our infrastructure and emergency services cope? What steps are needed to ensure groundwater supplies last through heat waves? This is what we mean by adaptation.
A lot needs to be done. To strengthen our adaptability we need to know how different regions and sectors in the economy are vulnerable to climate change, in what ways they are vulnerable, and why — questions to which we so far have few answers. Advancing research and development in this area should be a main priority alongside efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, a priority that Canada should be practising here at home and showcasing on the world stage in Montreal.
Less developed countries — many of which have made virtually no contribution to atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulations but are facing the risks — are looking to Canada for leadership, guidance and assistance in adapting to climate change. They would welcome a Canadian performance at Montreal that includes an international climate change adaptation strategy with funding to match. It makes good sense, and would be consistent with the Millennium Development Goals and Canada's international development policy updated earlier this year.
The world is watching — will we take the stage?
