29 June 2007The Guardian
Former US vice-president Al Gore speaks during a conference on climatic change in Santa Cruz, Tenerife. Photograph: Arturo Rodriguez/AP
The poll, conducted in New Hampshire by 7News and Suffolk University, confirmed Ms Clinton's nationwide double-digit lead over her main rival, Illinois senator Barack Obama. The former first lady and New York senator attracted 37% support, against Mr Obama's 19%. John Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was on 9%.
But if Mr Gore were to seek the Democratic nomination, 29% of Ms Clinton's backers would switch their support to him, the poll found. When defections from other candidates are factored in, the man who controversially lost to Mr Bush in the 2000 election takes command of the field, with 32% support.
Both the Democrats and Republicans will contest primary elections in New Hampshire on January 22.
Mr Gore has repeatedly denied he is planning a White House run. But the absence so far of a strong, unifying choice for the Democratic nomination, Mr Gore's enhanced reputation as an environmental campaigner, and deep Republican divisions are encouraging speculation that he may change his mind.
"I have not ruled out the possibility of getting into politics some time in the future but I don't expect to because I don't expect things to change," Mr Gore says in an interview in the July edition of Fast Company magazine. "If they did change, then I would feel differently."
David Terr, a political analyst at USAelectionpolls.com, said the 7News poll was based on a small voter sample and had a large margin of error. But it reinforced a pattern in the polls that showed Mr Gore gaining support nationally.
"His gaining six points in six months is ... just what he needs to justify running for the presidency," Mr Terr said. "He can say that the American people wanted him to run. So the image about him being a sore loser or desperate to become president or someone that is not a man of the people can be thrown into the trash."
"If Al Gore runs, Republicans should be very afraid," said one blogger on Politico.com yesterday. "As much as they like to make fun of him, no one can deny that he is the candidate that has the most appeal and ability to energise his base."
Mr Gore's rehabilitation is accelerating as America's political agenda steadily moves towards issues such as climate change that he has long championed.
"In what may be the greatest brand makeover in history, Gore is being hailed as a visionary who was right about everything from global warming to Iraq," writes Fast Company's Ellen McGirt. "At 59, he's an Academy award winner, a bestselling author, a frontrunner for the Nobel prize, and a concert promoter."
Mr Gore is likely to make headlines again with the Live Earth concerts on July 7. He has helped to organise the eight shows, to be held simultaneously around the world, to raise awareness and funds to combat global warming.
As Democrats struggle to measure the potential impact of undeclared candidates, similar imponderables are dogging the Republicans.
Analysts say the national lead held by Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor, could quickly disappear if, as expected, Fred Thompson, an actor and former Tennessee senator, steps in next week.
Another wild card is the undeclared but widely expected independent candidacy of the current New York mayor, Michael Bloomberg. If he runs, polls suggest Mr Giuliani would be the biggest loser. To complicate matters, Ralph Nader, the consumer activist whose third-party challenge dished Mr Gore in 2000, says he may also run as an independent.
