Marines near Falluja call last year's invasion of Iraq 'the first war'. This, then, is the second. They plan to retake the rebel-held city of Falluja and from there crush the insurgency throughout the Sunni Triangle, west of Baghdad.
Last week thousands more combat troops, joined by Iraqi security forces, arrived to back the marines who will lead the assault - expected to begin as early as tomorrow.
'This is an overwhelming force focused on one thing - to rid Falluja of the terrorists,' said Colonel Mike Shupp, commander of Regimental Combat Team 1, a lead element of the First Marine Expeditionary Force, which is expected to be in the front line.
Scores of tanks and amphibious assault vehicles have been prepared and equipped ready for the attack. Each vehicle requires seven hours of servicing for one hour on the road and many are showing signs of wear after nearly two years in Kuwait and Iraq. So many different units are expected to be involved in Falluja that some fear the Americans may end up shooting each other.
The campaign has been well signposted, with daily bombing raids and publicity through the media in the hope that insurgents will be intimidated into surrender and civilians will leave. In April the marines curtailed a similar attack after three days, in part because the Iraqi governing council protested about the number of civilians killed. The website Iraq Body Count, which tallies media reports of casualties, said that in April up to 600 civilians were killed, 300 of them women and children. US forces say they do not keep count of civilian or enemy casualties.
'Although it is inevitable that there are some casualties in a city like this, we have done everything we can to let people know coalition forces are here,' said Shupp. 'That's one of the reasons why we have such a large show of force, so people realise they should really evacuate.' More than half the townspeople are believed to have left. Anyone still in the city will be regarded as a potential insurgent and all cars treated as possible suicide bombs.
Estimates for the number of fighters left in Falluja vary from 600 to 6,000. The Americans define them as 'former Baath party, former army, foreign fighters and other largely criminal elements - a Sopranos gang type that feeds off coercion'. Sketchy information suggests that, although different groups occasionally fight each other, they will unite to resist a common enemy.
The rebel leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian whose group is linked to al-Qaeda and is responsible for the beheading of several foreigners including Ken Bigley, is believed to have left Falluja. But others may still be there, including Omar Hadid, an Iraqi who leads a group called the Black Banners Brigades of the Islamic Army, and Abdullah al-Janabi who calls himself the Emir of the 'Islamic Republic of Falluja'. US intelligence sources say that both men have tried to introduce Islamic law in Falluja, including amputations and public executions.
The marines take confidence from their training, weaponry and armour. 'Those guys just come out shooting at tanks with AKs,' said a lieutenant. 'They're suicidal fanatics. It's sad, really.'
But even if the Americans take Falluja reasonably quickly, they face the same problems as all conventional armies fighting guerrilla wars. Superior firepower can destroy a city, but snipers can pick off soldiers when they leave their armoured vehicles. They may also melt away to spring up elsewhere.
Some commanders have been studying a book entitled Russia's Chechnya Wars 1994-2000: Lessons from Urban Combat. In 1995 the Russians pounded Grozny until the neighbourhoods harbouring Chechen fighters were reduced to rubble but, nine years on, rebels are still blowing up Russian soldiers with booby-trap bombs.
The Americans say their actions are directed by the interim Iraqi government, but last week splits emerged as Prime Minister Iyad Allawi indicated he wanted a rapid US-led assault, while President Ghazi al-Yawar told a Kuwaiti newspaper that he favoured 'continued dialogue' with tribal leaders inside the city. The Americans have already planned the attack in detail with Allawi's consent and intend to make use of newly trained Iraqi forces.
'The Iraqis will play a very important role. Iraqi police and military are going to establish a sense of security inside the city,' said Shupp. But the reality is that US soldiers and marines regard the Iraqi forces as a mixed blessing at best.
'There's not a marine here who trusts a single one of them,' said a marine lieutenant. Some are regarded as incompetent, others as spies. The two battalion-strong Specialised Special Forces, known colloquially as the Shahwanis after their commander, General Mohammed Abdullah Shahwani, a former head of intelligence in Saddam's era, is co-located with the First Marine Expeditionary Force. The elite of the Iraqi forces, their officers - all from the army of Saddam Hussein - are paid up to $3,000 a month, a huge salary here. But they, too, have been infiltrated. After a nearby mosque started broadcasting anti-American propaganda on its loudspeaker, the marines led a raid on the village, accompanied by Shahwanis. By the time they arrived, the sheikh and others believed to be connected to the rebels had disappeared.
'One of the Shahwanis had made a call on his mobile phone,' said a junior marine officer.
The marines know they cannot repeat the mistakes of the invasion, when US troops had a relatively easy military victory only to be overwhelmed by looting and lawlessness.
'The day after in Falluja is being prepared in just as much detail as the day before offensive operations,' said Shupp. 'There are extensive plans by the Iraqi government to put in an interim authority to get basic services running. We have to make the people of Iraq think there is law and order, and the legitimate government will not tolerate terrorism or criminal activity. That's what this whole operation is about.'
·:Lindsey Hilsum is International Editor for Channel 4 News.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,5057061-102275,00.html
