Michael White, political editor20 April 2004
Tony Blair was battling to defend his timetable for the government's proposed referendum on the EU constitution last night as Downing Street faced accusations that its handling of the strategic u-turn had been shambolic.
While politicians on all sides welcomed the move, the prime minister lost the first round in a constitutional campaign that will last at least 18 months when Tory pressure forced him to make today's well-trailed Commons statement in person - instead of letting Jack Straw announce the referendum as planned.
Startled MPs, including some cabinet ministers, returned to Westminster from a two-week break to learn that Mr Blair and his close allies had "shot the Tory fox" ahead of EU elections in June by granting Britain's 45 million voters a veto on the 25-nation constitution.
But, in terms that infuriated the Conservatives and dismayed some Liberal Democrats, Mr Blair has done so without conceding the substance of the referendum until late autumn 2005 - safely after the general election likely to be held next May.
Michael Howard welcomed the change of heart but demanded the referendum be held as soon as possible without MPs "wasting months" debating the details. Charles Kennedy, the Liberal Democrat leader, who has also demanded a referendum, condemned the "amateur and clumsy" way the decision had been leaked to newspapers.
Labour MPs and ministers were divided over both the constitution - some share Tory fears of a loss of sovereignty in up to "36 areas" - and the referendum. But Mr Blair had an easy run when he addressed backbench MPs at Westminster last night.
He admitted realising last month he might have to embrace a referendum. The health secretary, John Reid, is credited with first telling the prime minister he was in the wrong corner.
The strategy is a bold but risky throw of the dice for No 10 at a time when Mr Blair's reputation has been damaged by the Iraq war. If it results in a No vote - as many on both sides expect - it could cost him the premiership.
Also gone would be his reputation in Europe, where a veto from Eurosceptic Britain would cripple the constitution.
France, where Jacques Chirac has resisted calls for a similar vote, would be especially furious. Some ministers privately hope another nation's referendum will be the first to cast a veto - three countries are certain to call a vote and six likely.
"It's a strategically brilliant move if you are concerned with British politics through 2005 but arguably strategically disastrous if you are concerned with Britain's long-term position in Europe," said one Brussels official.
The prime minister's decision to call a referendum was all but formally confirmed yesterday when he taunted Mr Howard across the Commons dispatch box during a sombre report on Iraq, Palestine and his trip to Washington.
Deriding the Tory leader's complaint that, under the draft constitution, "the president of Europe" would have visited the White House instead of him, Mr Blair said: "It will be a pleasure to debate the realities of the myth."
The official line is that Tory irresponsibility in threatening to leave Europe has forced Mr Blair's hand. No 10 has also accepted that the constitution has become a trust issue which must be taken head on, even if it means falling out with the Murdoch media empire and other Eurosceptic newspapers.
"The government believes the sooner people can judge for themselves in black and white the reality of a new constitution which is agreed, if it is agreed in June, the better," the Downing Street spokesman said. That was news to many loyal ministers.
Though some ardent Labour pro-Europeans believe the shift is a major error, most accept it will limit the elec-toral damage. A cross-party campaign including Tory heavyweights such as Kenneth Clarke and Michael Heseltine will have the chance to try to reverse years of voter hostility to European integration.
Under the Blair plan parliament will vote to ratify the constitutional treaty, if it is agreed at the June summit in Brussels, but only after it has been tidied up - "toilettage" in Euro-speak - by November.
Up to 40 Labour MPs and most Tories would vote against the bill, though few Tories would oppose a parallel bill to set up the referendum - because they expect to win it. Labour whips will not give their side the free vote that some pro-EU Tories will seek from Mr Howard. It will all take months.
But Sam Younger, the head of the Electoral Commission, signalled yesterday his staff would be too busy with other elections between now and next summer to run the vote.
Chris Bryant MP, the chairman of the Labour Movement for Europe, said: "I have never believed a referendum is necessary to sign up to a treaty." He said the question should be broadened to ask voters to either endorse Britain's EU membership or support the Tory's demands for a renegotiation which "effectively means withdrawing from the EU".
Mr Howard accused No 10 of delaying the vote for electoral reasons. "The prime minister plans to try to scare the British people with the threat that if we don't accept this constitution then we have no option but to leave the EU. But this is simply not the case," he said.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,4905483-107988,00.html
